Weekly Forex Market Forecast (September 3rd – September 7th 2012)

By Michael Trinkle, ForexTraders

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of September 3rd – September 7th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, September 3rd

• 2:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 8:00am CHF SNB Chairman Jordan speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF Retail Sales (3.5% expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (46.1 expected, > good for currency)
• All Day CAD Bank Holiday
• All Day USD Bank Holiday
• Tentative EUR ECB President Draghi speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, September 4th

• 5:30am AUD Cash Rate (3.50% expected, > good for currency)
• 5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (50.1 expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (50.1 expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, September 5th

• 2:30am AUD GDP (0.9% expected, > good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF CPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Services PMI (51.5 expected, > good for currency)
• 2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 2:00pm CAD Overnight Rate (1.00% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, September 6th

• 2:30am AUD Employment Change (5.1K expected, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.3% expected, < good for currency)
• 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (375B expected, < good for currency)
• 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (0.50% expected, > good for currency)
• Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (0.50% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (141K expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (369K expected, < good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (52.6 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, September 7th

• 2:30am AUD Trade Balance (-0.30B expected, > good for currency)
• 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 408.6B expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (2.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP PPI Input (1.6% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (-1.5% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (9.9K expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.3% expected, < good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change (121K expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (8.3% expected, < good for currency)
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (64.5 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2588/89, 1.2623, 1.2637, 1.2668, 1.2692, 1.2747, 1.2857/86, 1.2904, 1.2946/94, 1.3000/55, 1.3133/59, 1.3211/24 and 1.3251/92.
Above: 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.2519, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041, 1.1938, 1.1876, 1.1639, 1.0762 and 1.0206.
Below: 0.9607, 0.9599, 0.9338, 0.8410, 0.8347 and 0.8225.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 78.59, 78.83, 78.99, 79.07/17, 79.40/79, 79.94/80.22, 80.56/61, 80.82, 81.14/46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53 and 82.64.
Above: 83.01/83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51, 85.92, 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial: 78.28/37, 78.06/18, 77.89/99, 77.66, 77.00, 76.73/83 and 76.02/41.
Below: 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5890/94, 1.5907/12, 1.5921/27, 1.5983/90, 1.6035, 1.6061/92, 1.6109 and 1.6182/98.
Above: 1.6297, 1.6301, 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:
Initial: 1.5804/07, 1.5714/81, 1.5685, 1.5624/50, 1.5545/1.5601, 1.5514/16, 1.5458/99, 1.5403, 1.5392, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5267/77, 1.5267, 1.5232 and 1.5123.
Below: 1.5066, 1.5000, 1.4785/98, 1.4348, 1.4232, 1.3653 and 1.3501.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0374/97, 1.0410, 1.0422/51, 1.0474, 1.0486/98, 1.0508, 1.0528/56, 1.0596/1.0638, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53 and 1.0792/98.<
Above: 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0303/19, 1.0280, 1.0257/66, 1.0216/23, 1.0177, 1.0117, 1.0099/1.0100 and 1.0052.
Below: 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83, 0.9900,0.9849/96, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9899, 0.9905/06, 0.9924/97, 1.0018, 1.0029, 1.0083/99, 1.0105, 1.0128, 1.0142/72, 1.0199/1.0232, 1.0249, 1.0262/1.0311, 1.0334/37 and 1.0353/61.
Above: 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 0.9828/41, 0.9789/99 and 0.9724.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8030/40, 0.8052, 0.8078, 0.8099, 0.8109, 0.8121/35, 0.8195/0.8204, 0.8221/27, 0.8240/62, 0.8279, 0.8294, 0.8317/95, 0.8405 and 0.8420/27.
Above: 0.8504, 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.8013, 0.7996, 0.7966, 0.7906/50, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723 and 0.7605/76.
Below: 0.7500/85, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.

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