Weekly Forex Market Forecast (July 2nd – July 6th 2012)

By Michael Trinkle, ForexTraders

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of July 2nd – July 6th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Sunday, July 1^st

• 1:58am CNY Manufacturing PMI (50.2)

Monday, July 2^nd

• 8:15am CHF Retail Sales (0.9%, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (46.7, > good for currency)
• All Day CAD Bank Holiday
• 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.1, > good for currency)

Tuesday, July 3^rd

• 2:30am AUD Building Approvals (5.1%, > good for currency)
• 5:30am AUD Cash Rate (3.50%, > good for currency)
• 5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (53.1, > good for currency)

Wednesday, July 4^th

• 2:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.3%, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Services PMI (53.0, > good for currency)
• All Day USD Bank Holiday

Thursday, July 5^th

• 2:30am AUD Trade Balance (-0.51B, > good for currency)
• Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction (last 6.04% yield, < good for currency and a 3.3 bid to cover ratio, > good for currency)
• 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (375B, up from 325B, < good for currency)
• 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate (0.50%, > good for currency)
• Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate (0.75% down from 1.0%, > good for currency)
• 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (101K, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (385K, < good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (53.1, > good for currency)

Friday, July 6^th

• 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 303.8B, < good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF CPI (-0.3%, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP PPI Input (-2.1%, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (-0.7%, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (5.2K, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.3%, < good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (92K, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (8.2%, < good for currency)
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (55.1, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2668, 1.2692, 1.2747, 1.2857/86, 1.2904, 1.2946/94, 1.3000/55, 1.3133/59, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433 and 1.3485/95.
Above: 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.2623, 1.2588, 1.2519, 1.2496, 1.2456, 1.2435, 1.2407, 1.2329, 1.2288, 1.1938, 1.1876 and 1.1639.
Below: 1.0762, 1.0206, 0.9599/0.9607, 0.9338, 0.8410, 0.8347 and 0.8225.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 79.96/80.22, 80.56/61, 80.82, 81.14/46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53 and 82.64.
Above: 83.01/83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51, 85.92, 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial: 79.74/79, 79.40/42, 79.11/13, 78.99, 78.66, 78.59, 78.28, 78.06, 77.00, 77.66, 77.89, 76.73/83 and 76.02/41.
Below: 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5714/17, 1.5725, 1.5732, 1.5777/81, 1.5804/07, 1.5890, 1.5907, 1.5921/27, 1.5983/90, 1.6035, 1.6061/92, 1.6109 and 1.6182/98.
Above: 1.6297, 1.6301, 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:
Initial: 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5624/50, 1.5585/1.5601, 1.5516, 1.5403/99, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5267/77, 1.5267, 1.5232, 1.5123, 1.5066 and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4785/98, 1.4348, 1.4232, 1.3653 and 1.3501. 

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0257/66, 1.0303/84, 1.0422, 1.0444/51 and 1.0474/98.
Above: 1.0508, 1.0556, 1.0596, 1.0608/38, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0216/23, 1.0117, 1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9896, 0.9861/63, 0.9849, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.
Below: 0.9382/86, 0.9341, 0.9329, 0.9221, 0.8915, 0.8734, 0.8578 and 0.8066/81.

USDCAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0199, 1.0200/32, 1.0262/1.0311, 1.0334/37, 1.0353/61, 1.0415/23, 1.0438/39, 1.0481 and 1.0500.
Above: 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 1.0158/64, 1.0105/42, 1.0018/78, 0.9924/97, 0.9906, 0.9828/99, 0.9789/99 and 0.9724.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8013, 0.8038, 0.8057/99, 0.8109/35, 0.8204, 0.8227, 0.8240/62, 0.8279 and 0.8294.
Above: 0.8317/95, 0.8405, 0.8420/27, 0.8504, 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.7906/96, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723, 0.7605/76, 0.7552/85, 0.7521, 0.7500, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.
Below: 0.6945/62, 0.6793, 0.6686, 0.6560, 0.5914/28, 0.5012, 0.4890, 0.4485, 0.4451 and 0.3909.

More articles from ForexTraders….