Weekly Forex Market Forecast (February 27th – March 2nd 2012)

By Michael Trinkle, ForexTraders

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of February 27th – March 2nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, February 27^th

• 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (1.1% expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, February 28^th

• Tentative CHF Governor Board Member Jordan speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (0.0% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (63.2 expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, February 29^th

• 12:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (last 16.9, > good for currency)
• 12:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (-0.11 expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Preliminary GDP (2.8% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies (hawkish = good for currency

Thursday, March 1^st

• 12:30am AUD Building Approvals (2.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 12:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure (3.9% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (50.9 expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (51.9 expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (349K expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies (hawkish = good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (54.6 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, March 2^nd

• Tentative GBP Halifax HPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (51.5 expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD GDP (0.3% expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68, 1.3614 and 1.3795/98.
Above: 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.3433, 1.3321/62, 1.3211/81, 1.3321, 1.3197, 1.3145 and 1.3055/76.
Below: 1.3000/25, 1.2946/83, 1.2917, 1.2886, 1.2857/77 and 1.2623/65.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 81.46, 81.76, 82.01/22, 82.77, 83.09, 83.77, 83.96, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51 and 85.92.
Above: 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial: 80.82, 80.22, 80.00, 79.96, 79.83, 79.52, 79.40, 79.05, 78.66, 78.06/28.
Below: 77.00/89, 76.73/83, 76.41, 76.10, 76.02, 75.94 and 75.56/70.

GBPUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5927, 1.6092, 1.6109, 1.6128, 1.6164 and 1.6192.
Above: 1.6452/74, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616 and 1.6745.

Support:
Initial: 1.5868/90, 1.5770/74, 1.5735/45, 1.5728, 1.5717, 1.5685/91, 1.5668, 1.5643/47, 1.5624/29, 1.5516/85, 1.5465/99, 1.5422, 1.5410 and 1.5375
Below: 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000. 

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0718, 1.0751/53, 1.0784, 1.0792, 1.0798 and 1.0842.
Above: 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0686, 1.0670, 1.0654, 1.0627/38, 1.0608, 1.0596, 1.0498, 1.0444, 1.0384, 1.0303, 1.0266, 1.0224/29, 1.0216 and 1.0100/16.
Below: 1.0000/52, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9861/63 and 0.9732.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0018/78, 1.0105/42, 1.0160, 1.0172, 1.0199, 1.0207/32, 1.0262/87, 1.0297, 1.0302 and 1.0334/37.
Above: 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 0.9980, 0.9969, 0.9924/27, 0.9906, 0.9891, 0.9828/77 and 0.9724/96.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8395, 0.8405, 0.8420/27 and 0.8504.
Above: 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.8378, 0.8339, 0.8294, 0.8262, 0.8240/48, 0.8109/90, 0.8066/93, 0.7993/96, 0.7979, 0.7955 and 0.7906.
Below: 0.7855/88, 0.7827/36, 0.7804/09, 0.7795, 0.7723/73, 0.7605/72, 0.7568 and 0.7500/52.

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