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Weekly Forex Market Followup (May 13th – May 17th 2013)


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May 17, 2013 by  

By Michael Trinkle, ForexTraders

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of May 13th through May 17th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of May 13th through May 17th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, May 13th

  • 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales -0.1% versus -0.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Retail Sales 0.1% versus -0.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 11:45pm NZD Retail Sales 0.5% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.

Tuesday, May 14th

  • 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 36.4 versus 39.5 expected. The currency fell.
  • 10:30am AUD Annual Budget Release noted that, “In response to difficult global conditions and the sustained high Australian dollar, this Budget charts a pathway to return to balance in 2015 16 and to surplus by 2016 17, improves the sustainability of Australia’s public finances and builds on Australia’s record of fiscal and economic strength. This Budget delivers $43 billion in savings to return the budget to surplus and fund key nation-building reforms.” The currency fell.

Wednesday, May 15th

  • 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change -7.3K versus -3.1K expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP BOE Governor King said that, “Today’s projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than we expected three months ago. That’s the first time I’ve been able to say that since before the financial crisis” The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP BOE Inflation Report noted that, “CPI inflation remains above the 2% target and is set to edge higher over coming months. Inflation is likely to stay above the target for much of the next two years, bolstered by external price pressures and administered and regulated prices. But inflation is expected to fall back to around 2% in the latter part of the forecast period, as external price pressures fade and a gradual revival in productivity growth curbs increases in domestic costs.” The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm CAD Manufacturing Sales -0.3% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD PPI -0.7% versus -0.6% expected. The currency rose.

Thursday, May 16th

  • 3:00am NZD Annual Budget Release noted that, “The NZDMO continues to focus on extending the duration of the Crown’s debt portfolio and is considering launching two longer-dated bonds as part of the 2013/14 bond programme. Possible maturities being considered include an April 2027 nominal and a September 2030 inflation-indexed bond.” The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Building Permits 1.02M versus 0.94M expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Core CPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 360K versus 332K expected. The currency fell.
  • 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -5.2 versus 2.5 expected. The currency fell.

Friday, May 17th

  • 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.1% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 83.7 versus 77.9 expected. The currency rose.

Saturday, May 18th

  • 4:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke has not yet spoken. Hawkish = good for currency.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.2977 open to a 1.2828 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 101.77 open to a 102.87 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.5355 open to a 1.5199 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Sharply lower from a 1.0007 open to a 0.9735 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.0111 open to a 1.0277 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 0.8288 open to a 0.8074 close.

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