Turkey’s EU Dreams and European Energy Security: In the Pipeline?

Turkey is geographically well positioned to become a
regional energy hub.  It
could link producers in the Caspian and the Middle East regions with the
energy-hungry European markets, which by 2020 will import roughly
77% of the natural gas they use.  However, conflicting visions of who will lay the pipelines and
provide the gas complicate the issue. The EU is pushing for the Nabucco
pipeline project, aimed at cutting European dependence on Moscow, which has a
nasty habit of turning off gas supplies to Europe whenever disputes arise with
transit countries. Russia, on the other hand, has a pet project of its own -
the South Stream gas pipeline, designed to cement Russia’s position as the key
European energy supplier.

Caught in the pipeline race, Turkey is hedging its bets. It
is an EU hopeful, but also heavily reliant on the Russian energy imports.
 Stalled EU accession talks and public opposition to Turkish membership
from prominent EU governments has weakened the case for Ankara to put EU energy
security interests above other considerations and commit to Nabucco. Brussels
has a choice to make: Turkey will, sooner or later, host important Europe-bound
pipelines. Without a clear signal from the EU that Turkey will be joining the
bloc, Ankara will shift its focus from the EU-centered pipeline politics to its
own pressing energy needs.

Turkey’s Balancing
Act

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