July Pending Home Sales: It Could Take a Decade to Fully Recover
September 2, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Sold At The Top submits:
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for July showing a slight increase with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 5.2% since June but remaining a whopping 19.1% below the level seen in July 2009.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the national index as well as all regional measures declined significantly with the national index falling 7.2% since June and 20.1% since July 2009.
Do Information Asymmetries Explain the Housing Bubble?
September 2, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Felix Salmon submits:
Adam Levitin and Susan Wachter have a new paper out which reckons it can explain the entire housing bubble by looking at the supply of private-label mortgage-backed securities in the market, and the information asymmetries embedded in them.
They do have a point: since the banks putting together these private-lable securities, or PLS, knew much better than the buyers (and, for that matter, the ratings agencies) what was going into them, there was an opportunity — grasped with both fists — to take advantage of those asymmetries:
Construction Spending Falls in July
September 2, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Zacks.com submits:
By Dirk van Dijk, CFA
Total Construction Spending fell in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $805.2 billion, down 1.0% from June, and down 11.7% from a year ago. The decline was greater than the 0.7% decline that was expected. In addition, June was revised down to be 0.8% below May rather than the 0.1% increase originally reported.
Analyzing Market Schizophrenia
September 2, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
New Finance submits:
It was a rainy day this morning and traffic was bad, but nothing out of the ordinary. Or so I thought. After diving into some work, and engaging some clients, I decided to check up on the markets (something I had neglected to do last night and early this morning). What I saw literally blew my mind.
Dow Jones up nearly 2.5% at 10am EST? What? How? It turns out, there was a manufacturing report from the Institute for Supply Management showed an increase to 56.3 in August from 55.5 in July. China growth has apparently only been “moderating” as opposed to slowing down. This is marginally good news, of course, as any reading above 50 indicates growth. This, apparently, has turned bears to bulls and frozen the deepest chasms of Hell into winter wonderlands.
Aid for homeowners may be doing more economic harm than good
September 2, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Fortune Magazine questions the usefulness of government programs to aid struggling homeowners:
It’s easy to see the need for such programs. Theoretically, they keep people in their homes and bring some stability to fragile housing market. But the plethora of programs announced since the housing crisis started have largely been failures, suggesting that any effort to fight foreclosures and boost home sales is going to be a futile one. …Not even record low mortgages rates have boosted home sales or enticed a debt-weary public. Of course, this doesn’t seem much of a shocker. Experts say home prices — which have fallen by more than 30% since 2006 — are still inflated by 15% to 20% in many areas.
So why try to prop up prices any longer with federal programs? …
Evidence is mounting that government interference in the housing market might be doing the broader economy more harm than good, at least for the long-term. …
The few who are buying homes now might likely be overpaying for them. And many latching onto their properties are being convinced it’s okay to continue trying to pay off a home they can barely afford — echoes of the homeownership encouragement that led us into the bubble in the first place. …
Paving the way for a true market correction would not be easy to endure — letting home prices free-fall is a scary thought. But is a gradual decline that could prolong real economic recovery really any easier to stomach?
CoStar Repeat Sale Indices: Distress Contributing to a ‘Shaky Bottom’ for CRE Sales, Pricing
September 1, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
The CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI), produced by CoStar Group, found that investment-grade property continued to decline in value for the second straight month in July. Properties of sufficient quality and size for inclusion in large…
Tenants, Landlords Could Face Dramatic Changes from New Lease Accounting Rules
September 1, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Northrop Grumman Corp.’s decision in July to relocate its corporate headquarters from Los Angeles to a 14-story, 334,385-square-foot building it acquired in Falls Church, VA, was a huge economic development victory for Fairfax County and the state of…
Warning of Housing Bubble Overblown, Say Economists
September 1, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Canada could be heading into a rapid drop in housing prices according to a report issued by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives on Tuesday. : But while the CCPA is raising an alarm, others are not so concerned. Ted Tsiakopoulos, a regional economist with the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation, says that with Canada’s steady labour market and relative lack of speculative housing purchases, there is little indication that high prices reflect a housing bubble.
Residential Construction Spending Mirrors Other Housing Numbers
September 1, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Sold At The Top submits:
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their July read of construction spending showing near-trough level spending for residential construction with a continued slowing trend while indicating a slight monthly increase in non-residential spending.
With this months release it’s plain to see that residential construction spending is trending similarly to other measures of performance for the residential housing markets reverting back down to the the worst levels seen in early 2009.
The Misinterpretation of Economic Data
September 1, 2010 by admin · Leave a Comment
Richard Suttmeier submits:
The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury continues to trade around my quarterly pivot at 2.495. A new monthly pivot is 2.562 with my semiannual risky level at 2.249. Gold is trekking towards its all time high at $1266.5 set on June 21st with my semiannual and monthly risky levels at $1260.8 and $1263.8. Crude oil has a new monthly pivot at $74.45. The euro remains below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.2789. The Dow shows a new monthly pivot at 10,164 for September with today’s value level at 9,876. The miss-interpretation of economic data.



