Bear Market


What’s In Store For The New Year?

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

We have a Congress that can’t seem to get anything done. And the funny thing is if they do nothing, all of the previous laws start to expire. It reminds me of Cinderella at the ball with the prince and the approach of Midnight. In this case, we get the pumpkin.

Remember the Bush tax cut passed in 2001? In the house, 211 Republicans and 28 Democrats voted for it and 153 voted against it. In the Senate, 12 Democrats voted for the bill as did 45 Republicans. Two Republicans McCain and Chaffee voted against it with 31 Democrats. Bush signed it, no big deal. Now, today just trying to extend the tax cut has become a herculean effort. If you examine the Congress of 2001 and today’s Congress, they’re pretty comparable. Rumors have it, that Obama has said “My way or the highway.” It tends to support the idea that the square cog in the gears could be Obama as far as getting a deal in place.

Some mutton head decided that we needed to spread Democracy to the Arab world. I look for Syria’s president to get the Noble Peace prize this coming year. Egypt could have the first Islamic Democracy (that’s where you get to choose which trash can to throw your amputated limb in). Libya could have a new dictator in place with lots of military toys for sale (Got Stingers). Look for a new PBS documentary called “The Mushroom Cloud” shot on location in Iran and Israel, with a cast of millions.

In Europe, look for the Greek government to be overthrown—talk is cheap and the country is tired of the political rhetoric. The financial pain in Spain, Portugal and Ireland might spread to France. The economic problems facing the Euro is kind of like trying mix Ex-lax and Kaopectate —you have to go when you don’t want to and can’t go when you want to. If the Euro goes kaput, look for unemployment rates to drop drastically in Europe.

In the US we could have one or two states (Illinois comes to mind) become insolvent and figure about 20 cities to file for bankruptcy.

Look for interest rates to keep artificially low. Common senses suggest that some loans are riskier than others (the reverse mortgage is no more). Of course credit card debt interest rates are a different story 20 percent rates for Visa and Master Card. But if you want to buy a home, 3% interest no down moves you in. And a lot of the government programs will give you upfront money for move in repairs (like a motorcycle and/or widescreen TV). Think I’m kidding, read this from 2008 A Dollar Down Moves You In

Consumption should plug along, no incentive to save money at these interest rates. This will be the year that we get used to living with less and spending more for it. The stock market is kind of an unknown item. Nobody can figure out what’s been holding it up for the last 4 years.

Obama care is starting to kick in. I went to a coin dealer the other day and found out that there is a provision in the bill that requires a 1099 on gold sales over $600. What part of health care is involved in gold sales? In an unrelated item that ties into the above, PayPal wants my Social Security number so they can issue me a 1099 for my eBay sales. That’s not my hand I feel reaching for my wallet.

Then if you’re familiar with the school lunch program in California, Obama’s wife has screwed that up royally. Kids aren’t crazy over whole wheat bread or skim milk, and fruit, euck, it goes in the trash, give me some fries and a burger. This smiling wife with great concerns has no idea that the kids think her school lunch menu sucks. The schools have to serve the stated menu to get reimbursed by the government. What do you do with a dozen trash cans of food that the kids won’t eat? My suggestion; the fat kids don’t get the free lunch!

More than one commentator has suggested that Obama take a course or two on Economics. I believe the suggestion comes from puzzling over his current economic policies.

The New Year will ring in with a different tone this year. It’s Republicans against the Democrats. Cash or Credit will be the issue. Congress and the President can pass all sorts of wonderful new laws. Paying for them will be the problem. The battle to raise the national debt limit could be the fight of the century. The country is divided, but it isn’t rich against poor as Obama would suggest, it’s about living beyond our means.

Have a Happy New Year everyone.

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Precious metal downtrend to turn in 2013 – Handwerger

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Reckless spending and soaring government debts should boost precious metals and miners in 2013

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India Potato futures bullish contract farming reduces availability

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Potato is the third most important food crop in the world which is consumed by more than a billion people. The demand for potato is much higher worldwide and will increase in the future especially from developing nations. Food and Agriculture Organisation of UN has declared potato as ‘Food for future’.

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India Agriculture: Rabi sowing coming to an end acreage to be less

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Pulses sowing process is under progress and it is sown in around 13.25 mn hectares till last week. The sown area is 1.2 per cent less against last year’s sowing during the same period.

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Sugar futures bearish on higher output subdued demand

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

The Indian Sugar Mills Association(ISMA) has estimated 6.5 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 1.5 mn tn sugar in 2012-13.

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Michigan Homeowners Face Stealth Tax Increase Thanks To A DINO And The GOP

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

The majority of Michigan homeowners will lose their ability to claim tax exemptions under a stealth tax plan enacted by the GOP controlled Michigan Legislature and GOP Governor Rick Snyder

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Goldman Sachs Contributes to the Military/Corporate/Financial Complex

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

By Larry Rubinoff, GoldmanSachs666

Oliver Stone recently appeared on CBC describing his new ten-hour series called Oliver Stone’s Untold History of the United States.  It will be an interesting series to watch.  In the interview, he described the US as three “countries” each vying for its own space:–the first, is the USA population of the country within its continental borders; the second, is the huge military component of the economy and, third, the financial system.  Each has its own objective but the military and financial objectives include power that does not recognize the public purpose for which the government was originally created.

Eisenhower warned the people of the United States about power being aggregated in any one sector including the military and the industrial components.

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military/industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” (Eisenhower’s speech, 1961

However, he did not foresee that the industrial part of the economy would be decimated by outsourcing in the search for cheap labor and he may not have envisaged the power of the banks in the 21st Century.  So the thing to beware of is the “military, corporate and financial complex” which we now suffer within.

Through what means does the financial system, for example, achieve such power and political influence?  See the following article which shows how those creating the rules and regulations for a better financial system easily move from making laws to working for those for whom the laws are being created!  What a full-blown conflict of interest is brought about which will in no way resolve any of the financial problems brought to us by the banks. 

Goldman Sachs is a leader in these revolving door relationships between government rule-making and banking fraud. 

The CFTC is chaired by a former Goldman Sachs guy, Gary Gensler, who is attempting to make new rules under Dodd-Frank.

CFTC Staffers Cashing In On “Public Service”
By DSWright – Firedoglake

Step right up and Spin the Revolving Door – and what is your prize? Why, a nice job on Wall Street working for the people you used to regulate – you wrote in the loopholes, now you get the cash for exploiting them!

Latest contestants – staffers working for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Many Americans understood that the Dodd-Frank “reforms” were mostly worthless. They will not prevent another crisis or another massive TARP type bailout as the law did absolutely nothing about Too Big To Fail banks (which have actually gotten bigger).

This should not have been a surprise given one of the law’s namesakes, Senator Chris Dodd, was caught red handed getting special loans from perhaps the worst offender in irresponsible mortgage originationCountrywide. Senator Dodd barely survived an ethics investigation from his similarly compromised colleagues.

But what critics may not have understood was that Dodd-Frank was apparently a jobs program for politically connected staffers. From The Wall Street Journal:

After working long hours over many months crafting new rules for Wall Street, a number of government regulators are switching sides to work for the firms that will have to follow and interpret them.
Whenever there is a major policy change in Washington like the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, it enhances the marketability of government employees with specialized skills and contacts. But in the past, it was officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department in particular who found their expertise and contacts most highly valued in the financial industry…
At least nine CFTC employees have decamped since June for firms in finance, law and accounting that are figuring out how to comply with the Dodd-Frank overhaul. Six of the staffers were directly involved in rule making and three were in enforcement.

Well done staffers. So glad the taxpayers could fund your Wall Street internship at the CFTC.

Don’t forget the elected officials that helped you get the CFTC job in the first place, I’m sure some of that Wall Street bonus money can be spared for a campaign contribution or two. Remember, you might want to go back into government so you can get even more money in the private sector when you walk out the next time. Cha-ching!

Read the article here

More articles from Larry Rubinoff….

Weekly Forex Market Forecast (December 31st – January 4th 2012)

December 31, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

By Michael Trinkle, ForexTraders

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of December 31st – January 4th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, December 31st

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
  • All Day NZD Bank Holiday
  • All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, January 1st

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (51.0)
  • All Day CHF Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
  • All Day GBP Bank Holiday
  • All Day CAD Bank Holiday
  • All Day USD Bank Holiday
  • All Day NZD Bank Holiday

Wednesday, January 2nd

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CHF Bank Holiday
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (49.2, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (50.2, > good for currency)

Thursday, January 3rd

  • All Day JPY Bank Holiday
  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 9:30am GBP Construction PMI (49.6, > good for currency)
  • 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (134K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (356K, > good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)

Friday, January 4th

  • 9:30am GBP Services PMI (50.4, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (0.0K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate (7.3%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls (145K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (7.7%, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (54.3, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.3224, 1.3251/92, 1.3308, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433, 1.3485/95, 1.3546/68 and 1.3614.

Above: 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.3187, 1.3126/65, 1.2990/1.3083, 1.2946, 1.2904/19, 1.2801/79, 1.2747/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89,1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91 and 1.2323/33.

Below: 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041, 1.1938, 1.1876, 1.1639, 1.0762 and 1.0206.

USDJPY: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 86.63, 87.11/13, 87.95/99, 88.13 and 88.58.

Above: 92.14, 92.30, 93.76, 94.75 and 94.97.

Support:

Initial: 85.92, 85.51, 84.09/80, 83.85/96, 83.01, 82.53/82.83, 82.01/22, 81.68/96, 81.46, 81.14, 80.82, 80.56/67.

Below: 79.94/80.37, 78.83/79.20, 78.59, 77.00/78.28, 76.73/83, 76.02/41, 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6177/98, 1.6202/16, 1.6255, 1.6271/73, 1.6297 and 1.6301/08.

Above: 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:

Initial: 1.6130/51, 1.6109/12, 1.6083/96, 1.6077, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/06, 1.5975/90, 1.5961, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/90, 1.5825, 1.5804/07, 1.5714/81, 1.5685, 1.5624/50 and 1.5545/1.5601.

Below: 1.5514/16, 1.5458/99, 1.5403, 1.5375/92, 1.5267/93, 1.5232 and 1.5123.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0392/95, 1.0418, 1.0458, 1.0470/98, 1.0508/28, 1.0566, 1.0572/84, 1.0596/1.0638, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98 and 1.0842/54.

Above: 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:

Initial: 1.0358/66, 1.0327/44, 1.0303/19, 1.0292, 1.0280/86, 1.0257/66, 1.0201/23, 1.0165/77, 1.0148/51, 1.0117, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83 and 0.9900.

Below: 0.9849/96, 0.9794, 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9984/97, 1.0018, 1.0029/32, 1.0056, 1.0083/99, 1.0105, 1.0128, 1.0142/72, 1.0199/1.0232, 1.0249 and 1.0262/1.0311.

Above: 1.0334/37, 1.0353/61, 1.0415/81, 1.0500, 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:

Initial: 0.9952/60, 0.9905/07, 0.9899, 0.9815/58, 0.9789/99, 0.9780, 0.9762/73, 0.9730/34, 0.9724, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631 and 0.9525.

Below: 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8201/04, 0.8221, 0.8237/87, 0.8307/54, 0.8365, 0.8395, 0.8405/27, 0.8472/74, 0.8504 and 0.8571.

Above: 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:

Initial: 0.8172/95, 0.8121/53, 0.8078/0.8109, 0.8030/52, 0.8013, 0.7996, 0.7906/66, 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723 and 0.7605/76.

Below: 0.7500/85, 0.7404/67, 0.7321/69, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.

More articles from ForexTraders….

Indian Agri Commodities 2012: Traders’ paradise as Gold was outperformed

December 30, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Those who are new to this market and have no proper knowledge-base of trading in agriculture commodities run a heavy risk incurring losses, thanks to the complexes’ volatility. But, if we look at the positive side of this volatility then, it was trader’s paradise as smartest of the lot earned profits from movements in both sides.

gold-was-outperformed-52005-3-52006.html>Read more….

Prepare to shed more tears India Pak Onion prices shoot up

December 30, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Onion from India is mainly exported to Malaysia, the gulf countries, Sri Lanka, Dubai and Kuwait. The other major onion-growing states are Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka.

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